State Dept. Projects Visa Numbers; Cut-Off Date Likely for China Employment Fifth Preference Later in FY 2013

The Department of State’s Visa Office released projections for the next several months in its Visa Bulletin for December 2012.

Among other things, it appears likely that a cut-off date will need to be established for the China employment fifth preference category during the second half of fiscal year 2013, the Visa Office said, noting that “[s]uch action would be delayed as long as possible, since while number use may be excessive over a 1 to 5 month period, it could average out to an acceptable level over a longer (e.g., 4 to 9 month) period.” This would be the first time a cut-off date has been established in this category, the Visa Office noted, explaining that this is why “readers are being provided with the maximum amount of advance notice regarding the possibility.” The Visa Office noted that this advisory is based strictly on the current demand situation, and that demand patterns can change over time. Therefore, “this should be considered a worst case scenario at this point,” the Visa Office said.

The Visa Office said that categories with a “Current” projection “will remain so for the foreseeable future,” with the possible exception of the China employment fifth preference category mentioned above.

The following is the projected monthly forward progress for the employment-based categories (monthly):

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: five to eight weeks/month
India: no movement

Employment Third:

Worldwide: three to five weeks/month
China: one to two months/month
India: up to two weeks/month
Mexico: three to five weeks/month
Philippines: one to three weeks/month

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current